Estimates reveals consumer confidence in the United States improved to a five-month high of 59.5 in September 2022, up from 58.2 in August, compared to market projections of 60. Current circumstances (58.9 vs. 58.6) and expectations (59.9 vs. 58.6) both improved. With energy costs continuing to fall, the median predicted year-ahead inflation rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest figure since September, from 4.8% in August.
For the first time since July 2021, median long-run inflation estimates slipped below the 2.9-3.1% range at 2.8%. ” However, it is unclear if these gains can be sustained, since consumers continue to express significant concern about the future direction of pricing. From 1952 to 2022, consumer confidence in the United States averaged 85.98 points, with a top of 111.40 points in January 2000 and a low of 50 points in June 2022.
By the conclusion of this quarter, consumer confidence in the United States is predicted to be 58.60 points. Long-term, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the United States is expected to hover around 60.00 points in 2023 and 55.00 points in 2024.