There’s an 80% chance of the U.S. falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.
According to CNBC’s September Fed survey of economists, fund managers and strategists, those surveyed said there’s a 52% chance that U.S. could enter into recession over the next 12 months.
“The probability of recession, I think it’s much higher than 50% — I think it’s about 80%. Maybe even higher than 80%,” Hanke told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday. “If they continue the quantitative tightening and move that growth rate and M2 (money supply) into negative territory, it’ll be severe.”
Hanke was critical, and has been in the past, of the Federal Reserve’s failure to manage inflation through keeping an eye on the large supply of money sloshing around in the U.S. economy.
“They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They’re looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply,” Hanke said.
“And in fact, they’ve doubled and tripled down on the argument that money has no relationship to economic activity or not a reliable relationship to economic activity and inflation.”