Week ahead with China’s lending prime rates
FOMC Meeting minutes and remarks by Fed officials will be in the spotlight this week, so all eyes are on the United States. Forecasters anticipate an upward surprise for the Fed’s favored inflation gauge as well as attentive monitoring of personal spending and income statistics. Additionally, the S&P Global PMIs for February and the second estimate for the fourth-quarter GDP will be watched closely. The GfK Consumer Confidence indicator for the UK is predicted to increase marginally in February, but flash S&P PMIs are likely to reveal that the private sector in the country is still contracting.
Other information to keep an eye on includes public sector net borrowing, CBI indices for industrial trends orders, and distributive trades.
With a milder decrease in service activity, the flash S&P PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, and France will probably indicate another month of growth in the private sector. Other information to keep an eye on includes the final inflation rate for the Eurozone, the Q4 GDP and consumer price update from Germany, auto registrations for the EU, the business and consumer survey from France, and the trade balance from Switzerland. Markets anticipate that the one-year LPR will stay at 3.65% and the five-year tenor will remain at 4.3% when China announces its major lending prime rates. Flash PMIs for February are due in Japan, along with data on inflation. The core rate is expected to increase to 4.2%, the highest level since 1981.
The South Korean central bank is anticipated to leave interest rates steady, while data on trade and inflation in Malaysia, final GDP growth in Hong Kong, inflation and industrial production in Singapore, and export orders and industrial production in Taiwan will be watched. Australia will issue its Q4 flash PMIs, wage price index, construction, and private investment data. After a 75bps increase in November, the RBNZ is anticipated to announce a lesser 50bps rate increase in New Zealand. Variations in different markets are expected as investors closely monitor the state of the world economy, so firms should stay educated to make wise judgments.
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