Indian rupee caught between rising Fed rate hike odds and support at 82.80/dollar

The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Friday amid increasing probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike next month and the USD/INR’s failure to move above 82.80, traders said.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open barely changed from the previous session’s level of 82.74 per U.S. dollar.

The USD/INR pair has over the last few sessions repeatedly struggled to convincingly move above the 82.80-82.90 level despite the dollar’s rally against its major peers and Asian currencies.

Expectations that the Reserve Bank of India will not allow the rupee to weaken past 83 alongside investment and portfolio inflows have ensured that the rupee remains largely rangebound in the wake of the upbeat dollar. The dollar index overnight climbed to 104.30, the highest since mid-March.

While USD/INR is sitting on the higher side of the range, it seems that “there is hardly a 10%-15% probability of the pair crossing the 82.80 to 83.25 zone”, said Amit Pabari, managing director of CR Forex.

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